The Plymouth State track is a composite of the best models as of Sat. morning. Notice the shift east offshore.
If we believe that predicting where a hurricane will go should be easy, well, Hurricane Dorian should make a quick disbeliever of that idea for each of us. Since Friday morning when the word down here in Florida was clearly doom and gloom up and down the state, by this morning the projections have shifted dramatically to the east and now suggest the eyewall will not cross the shoreline. The cone of the strike zone has now even been lifted for part of the western section of the peninsula, so does that mean we're out of danger? Absolutely not, but it does give an indication that the earlier discussed weakening of the Bermuda high to the north is soon to take place as the slowdown of the forward progress of Dorian allows the next continental weather system to enter the fray in the Southeast. That is likely to produce a trough that will give more direction to the storm which is beginning to lose steering currents and could scoot Dorian further out to sea without directly hitting the United States at all. There will be coastal damage, but it may not be the catastrophe many expected and frankly, I'll just credit that off to prayers being answered if it later proves to be the result. But what now should we expect?
Some things I learned from an Old Salt at Nags Head many years ago play a major part in my commentary here, for there have been two factors which I find often apply to Atlantic hurricanes, particularly as they approach land. First, they slow down and it's as if they have a mind of their own and know that once they cross the shore, they will begin to weaken and they want to avoid that if they can. They want to stay alive and the one way they can is to remain over water that is warm, for warm water is what provides the fuel for the storm. Add to that the fact that the Gulf Stream continuously provides a source of very warm "storm fuel" from the Gulf of Mexico, running relatively near shore from the southern tip of Florida all the way to Cape Hatteras. It provides a pretty good reason why so many hurricanes end up in that area like Dorian is now perhaps planning to do. All bets are off, however, when the Bermuda high stays strong and dominant all the way to shore, but that seems to be faltering right now.
So, if you find yourself in a location where the maps and models show the storm moving up the coast toward that location, when can you feel safe and reasonably certain that the coast is clear. And that brings me to factor two from the Old Salt. We can feel safe and clear only after the storm passes the latitude of our location for, until then, if it turns toward the coast, we are a potential target. Remember, the earth is like a beach ball, so when it passes our latitude the natural spin adds to the force that moves it up and not down. That's something worth remembering, kind of reminiscent of the phrase "don't count your chickens until they hatch." Don't assume the hurricane will pass you by until it has.
Don't be worried, just be alert and stay prepared. And if Dorian goes by here as they are now starting to indicate, the power might just stay on for a change and I'll keep on posting my storm updates early morning and late afternoon until the storm finally blows out to sea. In the meantime, enjoy the Labor Day weekend.
Some things I learned from an Old Salt at Nags Head many years ago play a major part in my commentary here, for there have been two factors which I find often apply to Atlantic hurricanes, particularly as they approach land. First, they slow down and it's as if they have a mind of their own and know that once they cross the shore, they will begin to weaken and they want to avoid that if they can. They want to stay alive and the one way they can is to remain over water that is warm, for warm water is what provides the fuel for the storm. Add to that the fact that the Gulf Stream continuously provides a source of very warm "storm fuel" from the Gulf of Mexico, running relatively near shore from the southern tip of Florida all the way to Cape Hatteras. It provides a pretty good reason why so many hurricanes end up in that area like Dorian is now perhaps planning to do. All bets are off, however, when the Bermuda high stays strong and dominant all the way to shore, but that seems to be faltering right now.
So, if you find yourself in a location where the maps and models show the storm moving up the coast toward that location, when can you feel safe and reasonably certain that the coast is clear. And that brings me to factor two from the Old Salt. We can feel safe and clear only after the storm passes the latitude of our location for, until then, if it turns toward the coast, we are a potential target. Remember, the earth is like a beach ball, so when it passes our latitude the natural spin adds to the force that moves it up and not down. That's something worth remembering, kind of reminiscent of the phrase "don't count your chickens until they hatch." Don't assume the hurricane will pass you by until it has.
Don't be worried, just be alert and stay prepared. And if Dorian goes by here as they are now starting to indicate, the power might just stay on for a change and I'll keep on posting my storm updates early morning and late afternoon until the storm finally blows out to sea. In the meantime, enjoy the Labor Day weekend.
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