Despite his eager support for the Tax Bill which became law, Ryan has been a thorn in the side of the President in almost every other endeavor. Oh, he smiled and said nice things to his face, but behind the scene he and Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell were more interested in stopping the President's agenda than following the duly elected leader of his party and the nation. The true colors became obvious when he deceived the President on the Omnibus Budget Bill and whisked it through with nary a care for the wishes of so many Republican congressmen. Just like his predecessor, John Boehner, as Speaker of the House he gave lip service to we, the people while catering to the likes of K Street and the U.S. Chamber of Commerce.
Much of Trump's agenda has been stymied, including the Border Wall, defunding Planned Parenthood and Fair Trade. It's only because Trump is courageous and hard charging that much of the Obama agenda has been stymied by undoing many of Obama's executive orders. And he's done it because it was on his campaign promise list which got him elected. And much of the obstacle has come from Ryan himself, quietly and with smile as he undercut the President's plans.
Now the media likes to tell us that there is a Blue Wave coming, yet it's the very same pundits who predicted a Hillary landslide that cast doom on the Grand Old Party. Now granted, there are an extremely large number of Republican incumbents who have chosen not to run for reelection, but what is the real cause? Is it because they think what Trump is doing is not palatable and there is not a winning cause or is it because they know they haven't been true to their promises? Trump hasn't failed to deliver, the Establishment has by supporting the lobbyist and political class instead of the people who are now aware of it. I put Ryan right in the middle of this group as is Mitch McConnell, the Senate Majority Leader.
The determining factor in the House will be the quality of the candidate that the GOP puts up as the replacement. If they go the RINO route, then yes, the Democrats could win, but even that could be a stretch if Trump can get the campaign committees of both Houses of Congress to realize they will be cutting their own throat if they don't wake up to the base. I will admit that could be a big if, but I can't believe that many in America, save the true believer liberal group, can really stomach the idea of Nancy Pelosi or another aging leftist like Steny Hoyer to lead the House.
And then there's the Senate, where right now five Democratic incumbents in red states are trailing in the polls. Granted, there is a long time before election day, but candidates like McCaskill in Missouri, Heitkamp in North Dakota, Manchin in West Virginia, just to name three, are in serious trouble right now. And with Trump currently five points higher in the polls at this point in his first term than Obama was in his first term(source: Rasmussen, a very accurate pollster), I wouldn't bet the farm on Democrats gaining anything in the Senate. It's more likely they'll lose ground if the national Republicans have enough sense to look a the tea leaves. That on it's own, however, is always a big if since the Party has a habit of stabbing itself in the heart frequently.
And getting back to Ryan, I'm sure he'll get a big gig from K Street and make a fortune. And with his wife a high dollar Washington attorney who decided to be a stay at home mom at least for now, they'll be rolling in the dough. Ryan's problem was he can't win because he didn't do what he said he'd do and I think he did it in cahoots with McConnell, who never sticks to what he runs on each time he's up for reelection. You see, Ryan could afford to pass a bill when he knew the Senate wouldn't also pass it. It gave him cover.
Can I predict the outcome of an election in seven months? No, I don't think so, but I know that the forgotten flyover people of American people wanted what Trump ran on. And when Ryan presented the Omnibus Budget bill to Trump with his blessing, then did his deed in the dark of night to "pork it up" even more, I think that was his final straw. You can agree with me or not but it is as logical as all of the absurd guesses that the Washington "hangers-on" can make. So, I'll just stick to it.